Can Erupt Spoil the Party in Tokyo?

In the last 17 runnings of the G1 Japan Cup, only Falbrav (Ire) (2002 when the race was held over 11 furlongs Nakayama) and Alkaased (2005) have been able to take down the colors of the locals on their home turf. Three-year-old runners have managed to best their elders on six previous occasions in the first 34 renewals, and the Niarchos Family’s Erupt (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), one of the top sophomores in France in 2015, will look to add his name to this list in Sunday’s feature.

The homebred son of Mare Nostrum (GB) (Caerleon), trained by the up-and-coming Francis-Henri Graffard, has proved a revelation this term, with four wins on the bounce to begin his career, including the G3 Prix du Lys and the G1 Grand Prix de Paris. Having established his credentials as a potential horse for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, he was rested for the Arc trials, but failed to handle the bottomless ground when fourth to New Bay (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the G2 Prix Niel Sept. 13. He was scarcely embarrassed on Arc day, as he stayed on well to be fifth, under four lengths behind Golden Horn (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}), the form of which has held up well with that one’s runner-up effort in the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf just behind Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), ninth in the Longchamp centerpiece.

“In the Prix Niel, the ground was very very soft, and as you saw, physically, Erupt is a heavy horse, and he struggles a bit on very soft ground, and his wins in the spring and in the summer were on good to fast ground,” Graffard explained. “We did not really know what was going to be the ground in Lexington, but it was also a question of timing, as the race was coming a bit quick for him after the Arc. So the timing for Japan was better, and here, usually it’s good to fast ground all the time.

The Niarchos Family’s 2004 Arc winner Bago (Fr) (Nashwan) was eighth in the 2005 Japan Cup in his swansong and now stands in the country.

Erupt is on trial for the G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase, as are Trip to Paris (Ire) (Champs Elysees {GB}) and G1 Grosser Preis von Baden hero Ito (Ger) (Adlerflug {Ger}). The former, winner of this year’s G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles, made his last two starts in Australia, finishing a strong runner-up to Mongolian Khan (Aus) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}) in the G1 Caulfield Cup Oct. 17 before staying on into fourth in a paceless renewal of the G1 Melbourne Cup Nov. 3.

“Let’s hope it’s a truly run race and normally the best horse wins,” commented Robin Trevor-Jones, assistant to trainer Ed Dunlop. “I’d just like to have him sit seventh or eighth, the shortest around on the rail, and let’s see who the best horse is then.”

The Dunlop-trained Ouija Board (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}) was fifth to Alkaased in 2005 before landing the spoils in Hong Kong two weeks later.

The home defense, widely regarded as substandard, will still take some beating. Lovely Day (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) has landed pole position as he tries to stretch his winning skein to five. The dark bay belied odds of 13-1 to post a narrow victory in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen over 2200 meters June 28, was rested and resumed with a 1 1/4-length defeat of Sounds of Earth (Jpn) (Neo Universe {Jpn}) in the Oct. 12 G2 Kyoto Daishoten over a mile and a half and backed up to the 2000 meters for a smart half-length defeat of the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup-bound Staphanos (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) Nov. 1.

“He has improved from the Tenno Sho (Autumn),”reported trainer Yasutoshi Ikee. “We kept him at the training center after that race and just gave him a week off before starting him back into work. This horse is tough and feeling fine so I believe he still has a lot to offer. I’m hoping he can get some good results here as well.”

The enigmatic Gold Ship (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn}) makes his second Japan Cup appearance, having beaten just two home behind Gentildonna (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in 2013. As talented as any of his rivals, his pre-race antics sometime get the better of him, and that was never more apparent than in the Takarazuka Kinen. The 9-10 chalk that day, he played up in the stalls and never had his mind on running, finishing 15th of the 16 runners.

Mikki Queen (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) carries the hopes of the 3-year-old filly division and looks to become the fifth female Japan Cup winner in the last seven years. Victorious in the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) over the course and distance May 24, she may have been in need of the race when second in the G2 Rose S. off the four-month absence Sept. 20, but improved for the effort to prove narrowly best in the G1 Shuka Sho at Kyoto Oct. 18.

“Last time out, in the Shuka Sho, she was sent forward from the gate and didn’t allow anyone to catch her,” said Yasutoshi Ikee. “I think she really proved what a standout among 3-year-old fillies she is. It’s been our plan all along to go from the Shuka Sho to the Japan Cup. She’s a horse that needs to have ample time between races so having six weeks in between was good and the 53kg she’ll be carrying was also attractive.”